dan
02-22-2005, 10:43 AM
Source: http://money.cnn.com/2005/02/22/news/economy/social_security.reut/?cnn=yes
Survey says few economists believe the Bush administration will be able to remake program this year.
February 22, 2005: 8:55 AM EST
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Fewer than one in four top U.S. economists think the Bush administration will succeed in pushing through an overhaul of the Social Security retirement system this year, a survey released Tuesday showed.
"Only 24 percent expect the partial privatization of Social Security to be passed by Congress this year," a panel of 37 forecasters, who are members of the National Association for Business Economics, concluded.
President Bush is trying to persuade Congress that a plan that would include allowing workers to divert some of their payroll taxes into private investment accounts is necessary to shore up the Social Security system against financial strains from a looming surge in retirees.
Democrats and some Republicans have expressed reluctance, partly because this would require huge new borrowing to keep up benefit payments while personal accounts were established.
On balance, the NABE members were fairly optimistic about economic prospects, predicting gross domestic product will grow 3.6 percent this year and by an equal amount in 2006.
"Consumer spending, which was the economy's main growth engine from 2002 through 2004, is forecast to continue expanding a healthy 3.7 percent this year, about the same as last year's 3.8 percent," the NABE economists said. Spending by consumers on goods and services accounts for about two-thirds of economic activity.
Inflation, measured by both a GDP price deflator and the Consumer Price Index, was expected to be "reasonably well-behaved" this year and next, and the average increase in the index should be 2 percent and 2.5 percent respectively, compared with the 2.7 percent gain in 2004.
Forecasters said the slowing in inflation from 2004 will largely be on the back of moderating oil prices.
"The panel expects a barrel of crude oil to cost about $40 at the end of 2005, down from $48 at the end of last year," the survey said.
On the negative side, NABE forecast the trade balance will continue deteriorating this year and overwhelmingly cited one key reason.
"More than two-thirds of the respondents said that more rapid economic growth in the United States as compared to our major trading partners was the most important contributor to the worsening American trade deficit," NABE said.
Survey says few economists believe the Bush administration will be able to remake program this year.
February 22, 2005: 8:55 AM EST
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Fewer than one in four top U.S. economists think the Bush administration will succeed in pushing through an overhaul of the Social Security retirement system this year, a survey released Tuesday showed.
"Only 24 percent expect the partial privatization of Social Security to be passed by Congress this year," a panel of 37 forecasters, who are members of the National Association for Business Economics, concluded.
President Bush is trying to persuade Congress that a plan that would include allowing workers to divert some of their payroll taxes into private investment accounts is necessary to shore up the Social Security system against financial strains from a looming surge in retirees.
Democrats and some Republicans have expressed reluctance, partly because this would require huge new borrowing to keep up benefit payments while personal accounts were established.
On balance, the NABE members were fairly optimistic about economic prospects, predicting gross domestic product will grow 3.6 percent this year and by an equal amount in 2006.
"Consumer spending, which was the economy's main growth engine from 2002 through 2004, is forecast to continue expanding a healthy 3.7 percent this year, about the same as last year's 3.8 percent," the NABE economists said. Spending by consumers on goods and services accounts for about two-thirds of economic activity.
Inflation, measured by both a GDP price deflator and the Consumer Price Index, was expected to be "reasonably well-behaved" this year and next, and the average increase in the index should be 2 percent and 2.5 percent respectively, compared with the 2.7 percent gain in 2004.
Forecasters said the slowing in inflation from 2004 will largely be on the back of moderating oil prices.
"The panel expects a barrel of crude oil to cost about $40 at the end of 2005, down from $48 at the end of last year," the survey said.
On the negative side, NABE forecast the trade balance will continue deteriorating this year and overwhelmingly cited one key reason.
"More than two-thirds of the respondents said that more rapid economic growth in the United States as compared to our major trading partners was the most important contributor to the worsening American trade deficit," NABE said.